Global tanker capacity is forecast to expand by 22.6% between the end of 2025 and 2029, threatening the exceptional freight earnings and secondhand vessel prices sustained by disrupted oil trading. Hellenic Shipping News, carrying a Platts report, cited S&P Global Energy CERA analysis showing capacity rising from 703.72 million deadweight tonnes to 862.98 million over that period, after allowing for new orders and scrapping.
The supply increase would put greater pressure on demand to keep vessels employed. CERA warned that longer journeys, sanctions-related restrictions and operational inefficiencies might not absorb the additional capacity without weakening utilisation and freight rates. A return towards normal trading patterns, looser sanctions or the re-entry of restricted vessels into mainstream business could also make available capacity grow faster than fleet totals suggest.
Freight rates have reached records across tanker segments since the US-Iran war began at the end of February, the report said. Asian buyers have sourced oil from more distant suppliers, while Middle Eastern producers have used ship-to-ship transfers to reduce risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Between 27 February and 2 November, Platts’ Global Dirty Tanker Index for non-scrubber-fitted, non-eco vessels climbed more than 400% to $840,921.58 a day. Its corresponding clean tanker index increased more than 275% to $143,454.09 a day.
At the end of September, CERA counted 1,494 tankers on order, representing 184.10 million deadweight tonnes, or 25.1% of existing carrying capacity. Very large crude carriers and Suezmax vessels accounted for about 70.5% of ordered capacity. Analysts identified 2028-29 as the most demanding period because deliveries of these larger crude carriers would be particularly heavy. Product tanker expansion is expected to slow after 2026-27.
Immediate access to elevated earnings has helped push some existing vessels above newbuilding order prices. CERA valued a five-year-old VLCC at $185 million, a 57.4% increase over nine months and roughly $40 million above its cited newbuilding price. Separately, XClusiv Shipbrokers recorded 146 transactions against 371 tankers offered during September-October, with completed purchases disproportionately concentrated in larger crude carriers.
Veson Nautical expects tanker values to fall as deliveries build, particularly for VLCCs and Suezmaxes. However, it does not expect Middle Eastern oil flows to be fully restored before at least mid-2027, leaving the disruptions supporting near-term earnings and asset values potentially in place for longer.