Severely low water on the Rhine has disrupted fuel oil movements between coastal storage centres and inland European markets, according to Alkagesta Media. Its market outlook describes a widening divide between supplies accumulating around Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp and shortages further inland as the fourth-quarter heating season begins. The report attributes that imbalance to drought-related restrictions on barge navigation along the Upper Rhine.
At Kaub, a critical point on the river, water-level readings reached minus 5 cm on 1 October and 0 cm on 2 October, the outlet reported, describing the levels as record lows. Alkagesta said the disruption had forced major inland refining sites to cut barge loadings by as much as a third. It singled out Shell Rheinland, with capacity of 190,000 barrels a day, and MiRO Karlsruhe, at 316,000 barrels a day. The reductions cited concern barge loadings, rather than a stated cut in refinery production.
Heavy refined products have consequently built up at coastal ports, according to the analysis. Alkagesta put fuel oil inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub at 961,000 metric tonnes, reporting an 18.5% week-on-week increase. It separately cited stocks of 842,000 tonnes in its 8 September outlook. The company said the latest developments supported the separation between Rhine logistics and coastal stock availability that its earlier report had highlighted. In its assessment, higher coastal inventories are occurring alongside severe physical supply deficits in inland consumer markets.
The figures and market interpretation come from Alkagesta Market Insights, which says its analysis combines internal assessments with publicly available information from external sources. It identifies S&P Global Platts as informing certain numerical data, without specifying which figures in this account. The publisher also cautions that its material carries no guarantee of accuracy or completeness and that forward-looking assessments may differ materially from actual outcomes.
Read the original announcement on Alkagesta.